History repeats itself. Next time as tragedy: The ethics of climate adaptation for the overshoot generation (pre-print article / 2024)

In spite of the widespread recognition that effective climate policies require both mitigation and adaptation, the history of the climate ethics debate shows that the balance between adaptation and mitigation policies has been anything but stable. Although some researchers did indeed support a well-balanced mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies in the Villach (1985) and Toronto (1988) conferences, throughout the 1980s most people favoured adaptation over mitigation. This contrasts with preference for mitigation over adaptation in the 1990s and early 2000s, almost to the point of entirely discrediting the relevance of climate adaptation policies. It was not until the early 2010s that adaptation and mitigation came to be seen as equally important to address climate change. 

In this paper, we argue that by mid-century adaptation policies are likely to be seen, again, as more urgent than mitigation. The reason for this is that most mitigation pathways to the Paris Agreement involve a temperature overshoot, which will constrain the generation living under the overshoot period – the “overshoot generation” – to prioritize adaptation policies as a matter of survival. Even on the assumption that the overshoot generation will emit less than the current and the past generations have emitted, the overshoot generation will have to deploy massively as-yet unproven carbon removal technologies in order to mitigate the unmitigated emissions of the past. We call this process “retroactive mitigation”. We conclude the paper with four policy recommendations for the benefit of the overshoot generation.

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© Como citar este artigo:
Araujo, Marcelo de and Fior Mota de Andrade, Pedro, "History repeats itself. Next time as tragedy: The ethics of climate adaptation for the overshoot generation" (June 11, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4862217 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4862217.